From Weather Nerd
Gustav a hurricane
by Brendan Loy
As of 2pm EDT, Gustav’s winds are up to 70 mph (from 65), and its pressure is down to 984 mb (from 988). The storm could become a hurricane “AT ANY TIME TODAY,” and could become a major hurricane before swiping western Cuba tomorrow. [UPDATE: It is now a hurricane, as of 3:15 PM EDT, with 75 mph winds.]
After it exits Cuba, all bets are off. Intensification in the Gulf to Category 4 or 5 status is very much in the mix — though, if that happens, it would probably then weaken somewhat before landfall.
The Houston Chronicle’s Eric Berger is hosting a live chat on Gustav right now. He has been repeatedly emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding the storm’s track, but, interestingly, when asked whether he thinks the storm is more likely to deviate east or west of the current forecast track, Berger said east is more likely.
I may have jumped the gun with my earlier post about a possible Texas landfall, at least in terms of the perceptions created by the headline. I was just trying to point to a possible trend in the models, but the fact is, the forecast remains extremely unsettled, and the models are all over the place. A Texas landfall is certainly possible, but Louisiana remains the prime target for now.
Keep your eye on it. This could be bad.
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