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The Monty Hall Problem

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Fri Feb 17, 2012 4:49 am
Paracosm says...

Hey guys!

I read about this in a book, and I decided to do some research on it. It is very fascinating, and I thought it might spark some good debate. If you are familiar with the Monty Hall Problem, you'll know the answer, otherwise, make your point and argue it.

Suppose you are on a game show. This game show has three doors on a stage, behind two of them are goats, behind the third is a brand new Ferrari. Or Lamborghini, or Porsche. Whatever it is you like.

You pick a door. The host then reveals that the door next to yours has a goat behind it. Then he gives you the option to change doors. The question is, do you stay, or do you change? And why?

No cheating and looking up the Monty Hall problem!
Review unto others as you would have others review unto you.

Don't panic!

Also, Shino!

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Fri Feb 17, 2012 6:01 am
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Kit says...

Goat! Goat! I want the goat! Do cars produce milk and wool and eat your weeds for you? No! Cars are annoyingly and expensively specific about what you feed them.

Vote goat!

Princess of Parataxis, Mistress of Manichean McGuffins

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Fri Feb 17, 2012 7:30 am
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Snoink says...

Ubi caritas est vera, Deus ibi est.

"The mark of your ignorance is the depth of your belief in injustice and tragedy. What the caterpillar calls the end of the world, the Master calls the butterfly." ~ Richard Bach

Moth and Myth <- My comic! :D

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Fri Feb 17, 2012 9:46 pm
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inkwell says...

I love this little puzzle! Even when you know the answer, you can't help thinking it shouldn't work.
"The most incomprehensible thing about the world is that it is comprehensible." — Einstein

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Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:07 pm
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tr3x says...

You change doors. You then have a better chance of winning.
A lie can run around the world before the truth has got its boots on.
- Terry Pratchett

Si non confectus, non recifiat - If it ain't broken, don't fix it.

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Sat Feb 18, 2012 1:42 pm
Cole says...

I actually saw this on the TV show, Mythbusters. They proved that if you changed doors, you have a better chance at winning.
My heart holds all secrets; my heart tells no lies.

~Hosea 6:3~
ונדעה נרדפה לדעת את יהוה כשחר נכון מצאו ויבוא כגשם לנו כמלקוש יורה ארץ׃

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Sat Feb 18, 2012 7:17 pm
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skwmusic says...

Goat! Goat! I want the goat! Do cars produce milk and wool and eat your weeds for you? No! Cars are annoyingly and expensively specific about what you feed them.

Then can't you just wish for the 3rd door to have a goat? And then you have a 100% chance of getting what you want :D

As for the monty hall problem it's kind of obvious right? First you have 1/3 chance of getting what you want. And since you established that you can change your door, you now have 1/2 chance of getting what you want. So yeah...

Unless there's something I'm missing?
"I'm not concerned about all hell breaking loose, but that a PART of hell will break loose... it'll be much harder to detect." -George Carlin