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backgroundbob
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 Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2006 5:24 pm Post subject: |
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I think perhaps people haven't got the full impact of this yet.
Scientists aren't especially worried about birds transmitting this to humans - if that were the only way to catch it, it wouldn't be nearly so much of a threat. The reason everyone's panicking is because this is a flu virus, and a very nasty one, and much more importantly, a very unstable form. What that means is that is has the very real possibility of mutating into a strain that can be passed from human to human. This is possible two ways - a bird or human carrying it may be treated, forcing a mutant strain of the virus to survive. Or, the virus might mutate in pigs, which are capable of catching both human and avian forms of flu.
Don't forget that we have experience of this form of flu before - the flu pandemic of 1918 has now been identified as a strain of avian flu, and that kill nearly 40 MILLION people. This was in a time when travel between countries was not nearly so easy: if a similar virus appeared, it could spread throughout the world before we knew what hit us.
As for exposure to disease making your immune system stronger, that's true - sadly, in the case of H5N1 this isn't a good thing: quite the opposite. Normal flu triggers various immune responses, one of which is imflaming cells to help fight off the disease. Unfortunately, not only is our immune system pretty well useless against bird flu, H5N1 also causes the inflammatory part of the system to massively overreact. What that means is that your own immune system, while useless against the virus, is swelling up your throat and lungs and choking you to death - the stronger your immune system, the more trouble you're in. Ironically, people without any immune system at all are probably better off when it comes to bird flu.
In effect, this is a time bomb waiting to go off: while it stays in birds, the human population is relatively safe, but it's likely and more than likely that, given time, this virus will mutate into an airborne human-to-human contractable disease. And when that happens, we'll be lucky is 40 million is all we lose. |
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Matt Bellamy
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PlasticFork
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| Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2006 5:56 pm Post subject: |
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| backgroundbob wrote: |
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In effect, this is a time bomb waiting to go off: while it stays in birds, the human population is relatively safe, but it's likely and more than likely that, given time, this virus will mutate into an airborne human-to-human contractable disease. And when that happens, we'll be lucky is 40 million is all we lose. |
The chances of zoonosis (disease jumping the species barrier) occuring in H5N1 is somewhere in the safe region of 1 in many million.
In 1918, what killed a lot of the people were secondary infections. In 1918 they didn't have antibiotics to deal with the secondary infection, and they didn't have anti-inflammatories to deal with an over the top immune response.
The media like a story, and the worse it is the better. In my opinion, the biggest danger to the world at the moment is the vulture-like scaremongering of the media. Listen to the experts - the authorities, not what the reporter in his or her office thinks after cobbling together half-baked facts. |
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thegirlwhofateloves
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| Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:55 pm Post subject: |
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Lol, but sorry...I love the irony of Emma's post...
There was a dude on radio 1 the other day. He was a window cleaner (this isn't a direct quote):
"In my line of work I caome into contact with a lot of bird poo. Does this mean I could die?" (yes...if you fell off the ladder...)
The UK doesn't (yet) have the strain of Bird Flu that can kill humans. If it happens, it happens. There's too many off us anyway.
But seriously, yes, it could mutate...but I wouldn't worry about it. I'm actually fairly amused by the people who are panicking.
And Plasticfork: kill them and freeze them now...just in case.
I hope I don't sound *too* insensitive, but I honestly don't think there's much point in worrying about it too much. |
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PlasticFork
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| Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2006 9:40 pm Post subject: |
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| thegirlwhofateloves wrote: |
| kill them and freeze them now...just in case. |
Is that the chickens or the journalists? 
I wouldn't say I'm amused by it, more intrigued that people seem to want to get wound up about things like this.
At risk of sounding even more insensitive; if people die you could call it a reality check. "Western" culture especially, has become more and more divorced from nature - and death. You could say nature is catching up with us. |
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Sureal
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| Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2006 10:17 pm Post subject: |
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| backgroundbob wrote: |
| the stronger your immune system, the more trouble you're in. Ironically, people without any immune system at all are probably better off when it comes to bird flu. |
Heh, this reminds me of something a year or two ago (perhaps even three years). A guy from a - well, I suppose 'religious cult' would be the best term - called the 'Luciferians' gave me a link to a website for his religion. The leader of the cult is apparantly a psychic. This psychic said that there was a dangerous virus enveloping the world soon. He claimed that the only way to survive this virus would be to 'rest your immune system'. I had pointed out that surely you'd want to do the opposite - strengthing your immune system ready for the outbreak would be more intelligent. And here you are, saying that having a weaker immune system would be better for your survival.
Sorry, I just thought that was quite ironic.
Anyways, I have a very good immune system (I rarely get ill, and when I do it's only very mild and doesn't last long). So yay for me . |
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backgroundbob
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| Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2006 10:29 pm Post subject: |
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| The chances of zoonosis (disease jumping the species barrier) occuring in H5N1 is somewhere in the safe region of 1 in many million. |
Not quite sure where you got your facts - for any normal virus, this is true: flu, however, and avian flu specifically, has a high rate of mutation, as demonstrated by the fact that we have several new strains already and it's only been a few years since it first came upon the scene. Add to this the fact that there are multiple pathways to the mutation, and you have a threat that, while still not certain and with no sure time scale, is a very real possibility. |
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thegirlwhofateloves
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2006 12:54 pm Post subject: |
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...so we're all going to die...  |
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